I got bored and wrote a script to find 2020 HAD prize statistics.
To make the initial cut, a project needs at least 4 logs:
- 110 projects have 0 logs
- 25 projects have 1 log
- 19 projectshave 2 logs
- 10 projects have 3 logs
Of 263 projects entered to the prize, all but 99 are disqualified for having too few logs. Since up to 100 projects will advance to the next round, it looks like all qualifying projects this year will advance to the next round.
The project with the most log entries is "Sky Anchor WiFi Drone with AP brings the GIG" with 56 logs.
Of the initial 263 projects, 73 projects are tagged "wildcard".
Of the 99 projects with four or more logs, 34 are tagged "wildcard"
Statistically speaking, if you entered the 2020 HAD prize and have satisfied the log requirements, your chances of winning the $50,000 overall grand prize are 1-in-99 or about 1%.
The expected payoff for this gamble is 1% of $50,000 or $500.
If you entered under the wildcard tag your chances of winning are 1-in-34, or about 3%.
The expected payoff for this gamble is 3% of $5,000 or $150.
Pretty good motivation for entering the prize, eh?
The project "Modular add-ons for the CalEarth Dome Homes" has 5 logs but no images, so is presumably disqualified for having no images.